First rise in supermarket inflation for more than a year signals fresh pressure on shoppers, Which? finds

Supermarket inflation has risen for the first time in more than a year, in what Which? warns could be a sign of things to come amid concerns about further food price pressures on the horizon.

The consumer champion's latest supermarket food and drink inflation tracker which tracks over 27,000 prices each month across eight of the UK's largest supermarkets (Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Ocado, Sainsbury's, Tesco and Waitrose) shows overall grocery inflation increased from 2.4 per cent in May to 2.6 per cent in June, marking the first monthly increase since May last year. This means the price of food is going up by more than it has in earlier months.

Which?'s figures come as retailers warn that further food price pressures could still be on the horizon. Last month, Sainsbury's chief executive Simon Roberts said grocery inflation had so far been lower than many in the industry expected, but warned there remains "pressure in the system" from significant cost pressures across food supply chains. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, including conflict in the Middle East, also continues to pose risks to global supply chains and could add further pressure to food prices in the months ahead.

Which? found Tesco's annual grocery inflation rose from 2.9 per cent in May to 4.1 per cent in June, while Sainsbury's increased from 3.6 per cent to 3.9 per cent. This may have been partly offset by increased loyalty discounts (which aren’t included in the tracker), however, every other major supermarket tracked by Which? recorded either lower inflation or broadly stable prices over the same period. It's also worth noting that a supermarket showing higher inflation is not necessarily more expensive than one with lower inflation.

Although overall inflation remains well below the peaks seen during the cost of living crisis, shoppers looking to cut their grocery bills continue to face significant price challenges. Which? found that own-label products continue to show higher inflation than branded goods.

The consumer champion’s tracker goes further than overall supermarket performance, highlighting the specific categories and basic staples hit by the steepest inflation.

Savoury pies, pastries and quiches saw a 3.1 per cent rise in the three months leading up to June 2026 compared to the year before, however Which? found Sainsbury's Snack Pork Pies (2 x 130g) were up 92 per cent from 91p on average in 2025 to £1.75 on average in 2026.

Biscuits as a category saw a 3 per cent increase in the 12 months from June 2025 , but Which? found Paterson's Shortbread & Biscuit Selection (400g), also at Sainsbury's, rose far more quickly, from £2.00 to £3.75 (88%).

Annual inflation for cakes and cookies was 2.4 per cent according to the Which? tracker. One particularly striking example came from Tesco's own-label budget range Ms Molly's Iced Fairy Cakes 12 Pack which increased from £1.20 to £1.99 (66%).

Despite the annual rate of inflation on cereals and milks going down slightly in June compared to May, Which? found some breakfast staples have also become considerably more expensive year-on-year. Nestlé Shredded Wheat Bitesize Red Berry (450g) at Sainsbury's increased by 75 per cent from £2 to £3.50, while budget unsweetened soya milk (1L) at Aldi, Lidl and Tesco all rose from 50p to 79p - an increase of 58 per cent based on the average price over the three months to June 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Annual inflation for fish remained at 11 per cent. A notable example from Which?'s tracker found Tesco Breaded Chunky Haddock Fillets (350g) rose by 55 per cent, from £3.49 to £5.40.

Crucially, while the tracker shows that own-brand items are often hit with the highest percentage inflation, it is worth remembering that their absolute shelf price almost always remains significantly cheaper than branded alternatives. 

Shoppers looking to save money should look to discounters like Aldi and Lidl, who consistently prove to be the cheapest supermarkets overall in Which?'s monthly price analysis. 

For shoppers who prefer to stick to big-name brands, Which? research highlights that Asda is the cheapest traditional supermarket for branded goods, with standard shelf prices that regularly beat the member-only loyalty card discounts offered by its major rivals.

Reena Sewraz, Which? retail expert, said: 

"After months of easing grocery inflation, this month's increase is a reminder that pressure on household budgets hasn't disappeared.

"While overall inflation remains far below the highs seen during the cost of living crisis, our latest data, combined with retailers' own warnings that cost pressures remain in the system, suggests supermarkets cannot be complacent and it remains crucial for affordable budget ranges to remain widely available across all stores so shoppers aren't forced to pay more for everyday essentials."

ENDS

Notes to Editors

Methodology:

Which? Supermarket food and drink inflation tracker

• Which? monthly tracker tracks tens of thousands of products across eight major supermarkets. The tracker shows rates of inflation overall as well as by supermarket, product category and range.
• Which?’s tracker looks at 20 popular categories of food and drink at eight supermarkets - Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Ocado, Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Waitrose. It compares average prices across the same three-month and one-month periods year-on-year, including discounts but not multibuys or loyalty card offers. Figures are then weighted based on supermarket market share and the sales volume of each product category. 
• While some minor price variation may exist due to different prices at different stores across the country, this is unlikely to impact overall inflation figures.

Inflation on individual products

Inflation by supermarket 

This graph measures the rate of price growth (inflation) rather than absolute costs; a supermarket showing higher inflation is not necessarily more expensive than one with lower inflation. 

Inflation by category

Inflation by range 

RORs

Which? approached all supermarkets referenced in this release. Several engaged with us on background, but none provided a comment for publication.

About Which?

Which? is the UK’s consumer champion, empowering people to make confident choices and demand better. Through our research, investigations and product testing, we provide trusted insight and expert recommendations on the issues that matter most to consumers.

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