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Food price inflation tracker: what's happening to grocery costs at the supermarket?
Ellie is an award-winning investigative reporter who has written about retail issues at Which? for more than 12 years.
Olivia covers sustainability at Which? writing about companies who greenwash, all things rubbish and recycling, and trying to get to the heart of some complex environmental issues.
Which?'s groundbreaking supermarket inflation tracker reveals the supermarkets – and types of food and drink – with the fastest-rising prices.
Overall, food price inflation is fluctuating after a period where it had started to fall. It had reached one of its highest levels in more than 40 years during the height of the cost of living crisis. Some experts have warned of further increases later this year – mainly due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Ours was the first publicly available tracker to focus solely on supermarket food and drink price inflation. We run it regularly, analysing tens of thousands of prices to reveal:
- which supermarkets have the highest and lowest inflation
- which types of food and drink are rising in price the fastest
- how branded groceries compare with own-label ones
- whether budget ranges or more premium products are going up in price more quickly.
Our tracker looks at 20 popular categories of food and drink at eight supermarkets: Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Ocado, Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Waitrose. It compares prices across the same three-month and one-month periods year on year, including discounts but not multibuys or loyalty card offers. We weight the figures based on supermarket market share and the sales volume of each product category.
Food inflation in 2026
When we analyse annual food inflation, we look at prices over the past three months and the past one month compared with the same periods a year earlier. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure reflects recent changes in inflation more clearly.
In the three months to the end of July 2026, annual inflation for supermarket food and drink in our tracker was 2.5%, a fall from 2.8% in the three months to June. Looking at a shorter one-month period, annual inflation has also dropped slightly, from 2.6% in June to 2.4% in July.
This graph shows how food price inflation has changed over the past two years using our three-month measure:
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. Inflation is annual, based on three-month periods compared with the same time a year earlier. The number of products included each month varies between 23,000 and 28,000. The tracker moved from running monthly to once every three months starting in December 2023.
Two-year inflation
Food inflation has been rising significantly for several years.
For example, food prices in the three months to the end of August 2024 were 16.6% higher than in the same period in 2022 – but 2.4% higher year on year (compared with 2023).
- Find out more: how to spend less at the supermarket
Which supermarket has the fastest-rising prices?
The latest figures show that products at Sainsbury's have the highest inflation, with prices up 3.9% year on year in July. It was followed by Tesco and Waitrose at 3.5%. Products at Aldi had the lowest inflation; prices overall actually dropped by 0.6%.
| Supermarket | Annual inflation for the three months to the end of July 2026 | Annual inflation for the month of July 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Sainsbury's | 4% | 3.9% |
| Tesco | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| Waitrose | 3.1% | 3.5% |
| Asda | 2.2% | 2.7% |
| Ocado | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Morrisons | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Lidl | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Aldi | 0.1% | -0.6% |
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure reflects recent changes in inflation more clearly.
While some minor price variation may exist due to differing prices at stores across the country, this is unlikely to affect overall inflation figures.
This graph shows annual inflation based on three-month periods at each supermarket:
Remember, inflation is a measure of how quickly prices are rising or falling and not of the absolute price. The supermarkets with the highest inflation could also be the cheapest.
- Find out more: which is the cheapest supermarket this month?
Which food types have the highest inflation?
Fish prices rose fastest of all 20 categories in our research, followed by energy drinks. Butters, spreads and cheese have the lowest inflation, but all categories except butters and spreads are more expensive than in July last year, on average.
| Type of food or drink | Annual inflation for the three months to the end of July 2026 | Annual inflation for the month of July 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Fish | 11% | 12.3% |
| Energy drinks | 5.7% | 5.4% |
| Water | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Fresh fruit | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Biscuits | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Milk | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| Vegetables | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Chocolate | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| Fizzy drinks | 3.3% | 2.6% |
| Crisps | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Chilled ready meals | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Cakes and cookies | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| Yogurts | 1.2% | 2.0% |
| Savoury pies, pastries and quiches | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Bakery | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Cereals | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Meat | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Juice drinks and smoothies | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Cheese | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Butters and spreads | -1.0% | -0.8% |
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure will reflect recent changes in inflation more clearly.
This graph shows annual inflation based on three-month periods for five of the categories that originally had the highest inflation:
Are branded or own-label groceries worse for inflation?
Currently, own-label standard food and drink has the highest rate of inflation among ranges, with prices up 3.1% year on year in July.
| Range of groceries | Annual inflation for the three months to the end of July 2026 | Annual inflation for the month of July 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Own-label standard | 3.5% | 3.1% |
| Own-label premium | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| Own-label budget | 3.2% | 2.3% |
| Branded | 2.3% | 2.3% |
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure will reflect recent changes in inflation more clearly.
Here are the results displayed visually based on three-month figures, over a longer period of time:
Why are food prices rising?
Food prices have been rising for a variety of reasons.
Prices for feed, fertiliser and fuel – which are all needed to produce food and drink – rose dramatically due to the war in Ukraine.
This was coupled with the knock-on effects of disruption during the pandemic, as well as spiralling energy and labour costs. Poor harvests in Europe and north and west Africa may also have had an effect. For example, cocoa and sugar production has been hit by poor weather, disease and a decline in the number of farmers.
More recently, some people have also blamed rises in employers' National Insurance contributions and the minimum wage.
Some experts have also warned the US-Israeli war with Iran could drive up food production costs again.