Will the state pension still exist when you retire?

The future of the state pension is under the spotlight again. Fresh calls to scrap the triple lock guarantee have raised concerns about whether payments will keep up with living costs for retirees.

Separately, research from Hargreaves Lansdown shows that many people are worried the state pension won’t survive until they retire, with nearly half saying they don’t think it will exist by the time they reach retirement age, or aren’t sure.

Here, Which? explains what’s happening, what might change, and how it could affect your retirement plans.

Why are people worried about the state pension?

A recent survey by investment platform and self-invested personal pension provider Hargreaves Lansdown found that 46% of respondents didn’t think the state pension would exist by the time they retire, or weren’t sure.

Just 17% thought the triple lock would still be in place when they reach retirement age.

The triple lock is the mechanism for calculating state pension increases, with payments rising each year by one of three measures: the rate of inflation (as of the previous September), average earnings growth (as of the previous July), or 2.5%, whichever is highest.

Meanwhile, 22% believed the state pension would still exist but without the triple lock, and 15% thought it would be means-tested so only less affluent retirees would qualify.

Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: ‘This pessimism is driven by news that the state pension bill is growing off the back of an ageing population, with previous governments having to hike state pension age in a bid to manage the cost.

‘Speculation that the triple lock could be axed has also become a regular feature.’

• Find out more: use our state pension age calculator

Why is the triple lock under threat?

At the same time, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has actively called for the triple lock guarantee to be scrapped, arguing that it makes the future cost of the state pension unpredictable. 

The IFS estimated it could cost an additional £5bn to £40bn a year by 2050. Even now, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecast that moving from a earnings link in 2012 to the triple lock uprating mechanism is set to cost £15.5bn annually by 2030. 

The IFS has proposed that the government should instead choose a target level of the new state pension as a fraction (e.g. 33%) of economy-wide average earnings.

Paul Johnson, director of IFS, said: ‘The government could use the current triple lock to reach that target. But once that target is met, over the longer run the state pension would rise in line with average earnings growth’.

• Find out more: how the triple lock works?

What's happening to the state pension now?

Thanks to the triple lock, the state pension rose by 4.1% in April 2025, reflecting average earnings growth in the May to July 2024 period.

The full level of the new state pension is currently £230.25 a week or £11,973 a year. 

Pensioners who qualified for the state pension before April 2016 and receive the basic state pension receive £176.45 a week or £9,175.40 a year. 

The IFS also considered the impact of the triple lock on the state pension age. It warned that keeping public spending on the state pension below 6% of national income while retaining the triple lock would mean raising the state pension age to 69 by 2048-49 and to 74 by 2068-69. 

Instead, it called for the state pension age to continue rising as life expectancy increases, but said increases should be lower than longevity rises to ensure people typically spend longer in retirement.  

Currently, the state pension age is 66. It will to 67 between 2026 and 2028, and to 68 between 2044 and 2046 – though this could happen sooner if the government gives at least 10 years’ notice.

• Find out more: how much is the state pension?

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How important is the state pension for retirement?

The state pension forms a vital part of retirement income for many people.

Figures from Pensions UK (formerly the PLSA) show the full new state pension covers the entire income needed for a couple to achieve a minimum retirement living standard, and around 90% of what a single person needs for the same standard.

For a moderate retirement living standard, the state pension covers 55% of the required income for a couple and 38% for a single person.

For most people, it provides a crucial foundation – especially if their workplace or private pensions fall short.

• Find out more: how much will I need to retire?

What's next for the state pension?

An update about the future of the state pension might come as soon as next week.

It has been reported that the Chancellor will use her Mansion House speech on Tuesday 15th July to launch the second phase of the government’s Pensions Review. 

The second phase of the review will focus primarily on whether retirement incomes are adequate for future generations and whether the system is fair, given persistent inequalities. 

All types of pension, including the state pension, will be within scope of the review. Changes to the state pension triple lock, increasing the state pension age and the possibility of means-testing could all be considered. 

How can you prepare for changes to the state pension?

With uncertainty around the future of the state pension, it’s more important than ever to know what you’re entitled to and whether you’re on track for retirement.

Start by checking your state pension forecast on the government website to see how much you’re due and when you can claim it. This will also show any gaps in your National Insurance record that could reduce your payments.

If your forecast suggests the state pension alone won’t cover your expected living costs, think about how you might top up your retirement income. This could include paying extra into your workplace pension, setting up a private pension, or reviewing other savings and investments you hold for later life.

• Find out more: how to plan for retirement

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