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Food price inflation tracker: what's happening to grocery costs at the supermarket?
Ellie is an award-winning investigative reporter who has written about retail issues at Which? for more than 12 years.
Olivia covers sustainability at Which? writing about companies who greenwash, all things rubbish and recycling, and trying to get to the heart of some complex environmental issues.
Which?'s groundbreaking supermarket inflation tracker reveals the supermarkets – and types of food and drink – with the fastest-rising prices.
Overall, food price inflation is rising after a period where it had started to fall. This is after it had reached one of its highest levels in more than 40 years during the height of the cost of living crisis. The latest increase was forecast to occur and could mark the beginning of further increases - mainly due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Ours was the first publicly available tracker to focus solely on supermarket food and drink price inflation. We run it regularly, analysing tens of thousands of prices to reveal:
- which supermarkets have the highest and lowest inflation
- which types of food and drink are rising in price the fastest
- how branded groceries compare with own-label ones
- whether budget ranges or more premium products are going up in price more quickly.
Our tracker looks at 20 popular categories of food and drink at eight supermarkets: Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Ocado, Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Waitrose. It compares prices across the same three-month and one-month periods year-on-year, including discounts but not multibuys or loyalty card offers. We weight the figures based on supermarket market share and the sales volume of each product category.
Food inflation in 2026
When we analyse annual food inflation, we look at prices in the last three months and the last one month compared to the same periods a year earlier. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure reflects recent changes in inflation more clearly.
In the three months to the end of June 2026, annual inflation for supermarket food and drink in our tracker was 2.8%, a fall from 3.1% in the three months to May. But looking at a shorter one-month period, annual inflation has risen, to 2.6% in June, from 2.4% the month before. Whether this marks the beginning of a continuing rise remains to be seen.
This graph shows how food price inflation has changed over the past two years using our three-month measure:
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. Inflation is annual, based on three-month periods compared with the same time a year earlier. The number of products included each month varies between 23,000 and 28,000. Tracker moved from running monthly to once every three months starting in December 2023.
Two-year inflation
Last year, prices were already substantially higher than the year or even two years before that.
For example, food prices in the three months to the end of August 2024 were 16.6% higher than in the same period in 2022 – but 2.4% higher year on year (compared to 2023).
- Find out more: how to spend less at the supermarket
Which supermarket has the fastest-rising prices?
The latest figures show that products at Tesco have the highest inflation, with prices up 4.1% year on year in June. It was followed by Sainsbury's at 3.9%. Products at Aldi had the lowest inflation; prices overall actually dropped by -0.1%.
| Supermarket | Annual inflation for the three months to the end of June 2026 | Annual inflation for the month of June 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Tesco | 3.6% | 4.1% |
| Sainsbury's | 4.3% | 3.9% |
| Waitrose | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| Asda | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| Ocado | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| Morrisons | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Lidl | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Aldi | 0.8% | -0.1% |
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure reflects recent changes in inflation more clearly.
While some minor price variation may exist due to different prices at different stores across the country, this is unlikely to impact overall inflation figures.
This graph shows annual inflation based on three-month periods at each supermarket:
Remember, inflation is a measure of how quickly prices are rising or falling and not of the absolute price. The supermarkets with the highest inflation could also be the cheapest.
- Find out more: which is the cheapest supermarket this month?
Which food types have the highest inflation?
Fish prices rose fastest of all 20 categories in our research, followed by energy drinks. Butters and spreads and cheese have the lowest inflation, but all categories except butters and spreads are more expensive than in June last year, on average.
| Type of food or drink | Annual inflation for the three months to the end of June 2026 | Annual inflation for the month of June 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Fish | 11.2% | 11% |
| Energy drinks | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Chocolate | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Water | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| Fresh fruit | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Fizzy drinks | 3.9% | 3.3% |
| Savoury pies and pastries and quiches | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Chilled ready meals | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| Biscuits | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Crisps | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Vegetables | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| Cakes and cookies | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Milk | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Meat | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Yogurts | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Bakery | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Cereals | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Juice drinks and smoothies | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Cheese | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Butters and spreads | -0.8% | -0.9% |
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure will reflect recent changes in inflation more clearly.
This graph shows annual inflation based on three-month periods for five of the categories that originally had the highest inflation:
Are branded or own-label groceries worse for inflation?
Currently, own-label standard food and drink has the highest rate of inflation among ranges, with prices up 3.6% year on year in June.
| Range of groceries | Annual inflation for the three months to the end of June 2026 | Annual inflation for the month of June 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Own-label premium | 3.8% | 3.2% |
| Own-label standard | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Own-label budget | 3.6% | 2.9% |
| Branded | 2.6% | 2.4% |
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure will reflect recent changes in inflation more clearly.
Here are the results displayed visually based on three-month figures, over a longer period of time:
Why are food prices rising?
Food prices have been rising for a variety of reasons.
Prices for feed, fertiliser and fuel – which are all needed to produce food and drink – rose dramatically due to the war in Ukraine.
This was coupled with the knock-on effects of disruption during the pandemic, as well as spiralling energy and labour costs. Poor harvests in Europe and North and West Africa may also have had an effect. For example, cocoa and sugar production has been hit by poor weather, disease and a decline in the number of farmers.
More recently, some people have also blamed rises in employers' National Insurance contributions and the minimum wage.
Some experts have also warned the US-Israeli war with Iran could drive up food production costs again.