What's happening to house prices?

Experts predict that house price growth will slow down in the coming months, as higher mortgage rates and the cost of living crisis impact upon home buyers. 

The Land Registry says prices rose by 12.8% year-on-year in May, but we're unlikely to see this rapid pace continue in the remainder of 2022. 

Here, Which? analyses what's happening to house prices and explains whether now is a good time to get on to the property ladder.

What's been happening in the property market?

The property market soared in 2021, as buyers rushed to take advantage of the government's temporary cut to stamp duty.

The stamp duty holiday meant buyers in England and Northern Ireland could save up to £15,000 in tax if they bought a home before the end of June, or up to £2,500 if they bought before the end of September.

The number of property purchases peaked around these deadlines, but the number of sales each month is now much closer to pre-pandemic levels. Data from HMRC shows around 95,000 transactions went through in June 2022.

The graph below shows the number of sales recorded across the UK since the start of 2020.

Number of residential sales across the UK

• Find out more: how much is your house worth?

How have house prices changed?

House prices have risen considerably in the last 12 months, with the pandemic and stamp duty holiday bringing about a more volatile market.

The Land Registry's UK House Price Index is the most reliable barometer of what's happening to house prices, as it's based on actual property sales rather than asking prices. It works on a two-month lag, so the most recent figures are for April.

The Land Registry says that the average price of a property in the UK rose by 12.8% year-on-year in May to reach £283,496, as shown in the graph below.

Average house prices over time

How do other house price indices compare?

There are several other property price indices. The portal Rightmove provides the most up-to-date figures, but they're based on asking prices set by sellers rather than confirmed sales. Nationwide and Halifax also publish their own monthly data, based on mortgage lending.

All three providers are currently reporting around 10% growth, as shown in the table below.

• Find out more: best and worst mortgage lenders

Is the property market slowing down?

After the home-moving frenzy of 2021, there's now a mismatch between supply and demand. A recent survey by the estate agency Savills found that nine in 10 current house hunters have had their search affected by a lack of available properties. 

In addition, the trade body Propertymark reported its members had an average of 26 properties for sale per branch in June, compared to 50 in a normal year. 

The imbalance between supply and demand is also reflected in Rightmove's 'time to sell' data. The property portal estimates that homes took an average of 32 days to sell in June, down from 38 days a year earlier.

How long does it take to sell a property?

What will happen to house prices in the remainder of 2022?

Experts predict that house price growth will slow down in the remainder of the year, with the cost of living crisis likely to impact on the number of homes being sold. 

In its latest market commentary, Rightmove says that a combination of affordability constraints and more properties coming on to the market could even result in houses prices falling slightly in some months during the second half of 2022.

The portal forecasts that prices at the end of the year will be 5% higher than those recorded in 2021. Zoopla predicts smaller increases of 3%.

Estate agents are antcipating a much slower market in 2023. Knight Frank forecasts a rise of 1%, while Savills predicts prices will fall by 1%. 

Is it possible to get a good mortgage deal?

Mortgage rates fell consistently in 2021, as lenders battled to offer the cheapest deals to buyers with big deposits - but the race to the bottom is now very much a thing of the past. 

Rates have been rising quickly off the back of five increases to the Bank of England base rate, with the cheapest deals now more than three times higher than the historic lows recorded last Autumn.

Check out our stories on the best mortgage rates and 90% and 95% mortgage deals for the lowdown on the latest mortgage deals.

Is now a good time to buy your first home?

If you're thinking of getting onto the property ladder this year, there's good and bad news.

The good news is that low-deposit mortgages are still readily available, so you might find it a little easier to get a home loan than before.

The bad news is that it's unlikely that house prices will become significantly more affordable. Experts expect slower growth, but none are forecasting that overall prices will actually fall significantly over the medium or long term.

If you are thinking of taking the plunge, we're here to help. As a starting point, check out our story on the five things all first-time buyers should consider. And you can explore all our free house-buying and mortgage advice in our mortgages and property section.

This story is regularly updated with the latest house price index figures and expert views. The last update was on 2 August.